Will Petronas pull the plug in March 2016? Was Grant's prediction true?

#283

First there was this in the Financial Post


“CALGARY — Global markets for LNG could return to balance as early as 2021, ushering in a “second wave” of opportunity for developers of the supercooled gas on Canada’s West Coast, commodities analyst Martin King said.”


Hmm, but who is Martin King? is he an independent analyist, no, is he a CEOI of a big energy company? no…Who is he…

Mr. King went on to say this…


“There’s still a window open,” said King, the director of institutional research at GMP FirstEnergy.


Who is GMP First energy, who did the Financial Post go to for the spin…?


"In September 2016, GMP Securities combined its energy businesses with Calgary-based FirstEnergy Capital to create GMP FirstEnergy, a leading independent global energy investment bank…

GMP FirstEnergy’s highly experienced professional are solely dedicated to fostering global energy development. As such, the franchise plays a prominent role in the energy sector providing focused financial, advisory and investment services to a broad range of corporate clients and institutional investors worldwide"

http://gmpsecurities.com/Industries/GMP-FirstEnergy


So, a newly created energy project investment/lending outfit is trumpeting a second-wave…Rose-coloured glasses and too much LNG w(h)ine

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#284

A liquefied natural gas tanker plying the waters of the Mediterranean has created a guessing game for energy traders.

The Maran Gas Delphi has taken a meandering course after loading up on U.S. shale gas a month ago at Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Sabine Pass export terminal in Louisiana. The ship anchored off the coast of Greece for several days, prompting speculation that it would deliver its supplies to a port in the region. Instead, the tanker is now off the coast of Egypt approaching the Red Sea, raising the prospect that it may instead travel to the Middle East or Southeast Asia.

The winding track of the Maran Gas Delphi is a testament to how a gas glut fed by surging production from countries including the U.S. and Australia is complicating global trade of the fuel. The rise of so-called homeless LNG, or supplies not already committed to customers, is confounding efforts by traders and analysts to get a grasp of the market and make bets.
“It’s a bit of a mystery,” Jason Feer, head of business intelligence at ship broker Poten & Partners in Houston, said of the Maran Gas Delphi. “Normally LNG logistics are pretty well-rehearsed, and having an LNG carrier cooling its heels is expensive.”


What you have is orphened LNG cargoes with no home, no buyers…can you glut glut glut…

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#285

And this showed up today…Black Press…on op-ed…


http://www.thenorthernview.com/opinion/395859961.html

The following is an opinion-editorial written by Minister of Natural Gas Development Rich Coleman:

This week, the door opened for British Columbia’s natural gas industry to go global when the federal government provided approval for Pacific NorthWest LNG. The proposal represents up to $36 billion in new investments, thousands of jobs and an unprecedented economic boon for British Columbia’s future.

The advantages of building this new industry are substantial and it will help us build a stronger economy so we can afford the services British Columbians depend on, like health care, education and housing.

The benefits aren’t limited to our economy. Natural gas is the world’s cleanest burning fossil fuel and shipping it to Asia provides our province with an opportunity to lower greenhouse gas emission on a global scale.

Those are facts. Pacific NorthWest LNG remains committed to building an LNG project that will benefit all of us and the stories you hear opposing the facility are generally misleading and often inaccurate.

The environment is, and always will be, protected. Pacific NorthWest LNG’s approval was granted with 190 legally binding conditions following years of collaboration, scientific research, and stringent environmental reviews. They protect marine life and limit greenhouse gas emissions.

They also complement the provincial government’s work to be a climate leader.

In fact, British Columbia is the first jurisdiction in Canada to impose a carbon tax and we are the only place, anywhere, with regulations to have the cleanest LNG facilities in the world. Our environment is a priority. These facts speak for themselves.

Perhaps most disheartening is the actions of critics purporting to speak on behalf of the people living in or near Prince Rupert where the project, once constructed, would reside. This is where the truth really gets lost.

The prospects of a stronger future are most evident in First Nations communities, where the next generation will get a chance to learn a trade, find employment and create a brighter future for their families.

The Lax Kw’alaams First Nations have voted to support ongoing collaboration. As well, the Metlakatla have voiced support for the project. The First Nations LNG Alliance has also publicly supported the government’s decision, showcasing how meaningful consultation and engagement has led to positive results when all parties are involved.

Of course there is more work to be done. LNG is still a long-term commitment. We understand Pacific NorthWest LNG will now take the time to assess the conditions that accompanied the federal approval and review every element of their proposal to determine the best path forward.

As we eagerly await the result of this process, the provincial government will continue to work with the proponent, the federal government, First Nations and other stakeholders to ensure Pacific NorthWest LNG has the opportunity to deliver on its full potential - to make a positive difference for the thousands of people who rely on the natural gas industry now and into the future.

Now, more than ever, we know Pacific NorthWest LNG can be an active, responsible player in British Columbia’s economy. The benefits are indisputable and far-reaching. For people in northern B.C., and specifically those who have been on the periphery of economic development for far too long, building Pacific NorthWest LNG opens the door to a new, stronger future.



An op-ed piece by Rich Coleman?

If this project is a GO…why after 5 years of BC Liberal LNG blather does Rich Coleman need to do an op-ed to make his case?

Who is Rich Coleman trying to convince…

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#286

Who are you trying to convince?? We all know you’re nothing but a paid shill for the NDP. Why don’t you get up off your ass and actually see what has been happening instead of looking for irrelevant news posts on the internet. Just admit that you were wrong. :smiley:

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#287

Why are you constantly calling him a Dipper? What’s politics got to do with it?
All his posts are more like the advice of an investment analyst, if you had a ton of extra $$ to invest you’d be nuts to invest in an LNG export proposal. No one else is, the market sucks.
The Greens oppose LNG on environmental grounds, the Dippers on that and the fact there’s a lot of other shit BC can do other than pie-in-the-sky mega-projects.
Lose the “NDP shill” BS, you’re starting to sound like a Trump-ette just as the ‘missed the March 2016’ thing is starting to sound a lot like ‘you deleted 33,000 emails’.
There’s absolutely nothing anyone in BC can do to make it happen sooner, and absolutely no one in BC is gonna die or lose their job if it doesn’t happen at all.

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#288

Funny if you knew Grant G you would also know he advocates for the NDP. He predicted last election that the NDP would win. He also brings his dislike for the Liberals into his posts and blogs. Oh and personally I feel the same if it happens great, if not its not the end of the world. But it would be nice if this region got a big boost in economic and job gains. We also know its the resource industry that supplies the jobs directly and indirectly to the majority of communities 100 Mile House northward.

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#289

I don’t think the NDP would want him to be their cheerleader. Perhaps any normal political party in Canada wouldn’t want a conspiracy theorist as their mascot.

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#290

I don’t know …Gracie’s mom doesn’t seem to actually provides facts of her own …other than just sit around and bad mouth people that do have honest opinions of wheather LNG gas is comming in the next 10 years or not .

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#291

Who needs LNG…Australian taxpayers are not receiving any money for exporting finite resources…After the Australian government pays back the money for terminal builds…Australia is losing money exporting LNG…Big energy makes the money and taxpayers hold empty bags.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/oct/11/fears-australia-losing-billions-in-liquefied-natural-gas-tax-sparks-calls-for-inquiry

Big Energy just ain’t paying, those are the facts.


http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/only-5-of-oil-and-gas-companies-pay-resource-tax-20161010-grz470.html

Just five per cent of oil and gas projects operating in Australia are paying anything towards the Federal Government’s royalty-like scheme designed to share the wealth generated by the nation’s resources with the public that owns them.

As pressure builds for a parliamentary inquiry into the petroleum resource rent tax, Fairfax Media can reveal that just eight out of 149 resource projects currently generating revenue contributed a cent in PRRT in 2014-15

ATO data shows the oil and gas industry, which is now dominated by multinational-operated LNG projects off the Western Australian coast and Queensland’s coal seam gas sector, had revenues of $25 billion last year.

But the design of the PRRT, which is a rent based on super-profits rather than a flat royalty, allows companies to write off exploration and other capital costs against revenue before being forced to pay any PRRT.

The ATO figures shows the total “carry-forward expenditure” of the industry has risen to $187 billion. Effectively, that means the sector can pocket sales of $187 billion before being forced to pay any PRRT.

Resource tax experts like Diane Kraal, a senior lecturer at Monash University, say the picture is worse because generous “uplift rates” like the 18 per cent rate applied to exploration costs mean carry-forward expenditure grows by that percentage every year that they are not used against revenue.

According to the ATO, total carry-forward expenditure grew sharply from $128 billion in 2012-13.

Ms Kraal has warned that the PRRT will not deliver any significant revenue “in her lifetime” if its design is not overhauled


British Columbia does not need to export a finite resource for no money, at a cost, it would be cheaper in the long run to pay northern BC gas workers to stay home…

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#292

BC’s natural gas royalty program have fun reading it

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#293

The latest LNG news…The new timeline for British Columbia LNG FID’s is?..


"“Right now, the market doesn’t look very good, but it will always turn. This is part of the dynamics of our sector.”

Industry analyst Martin King of GMP FirstEnergy said the next window of opportunity for LNG development in Canada is six or seven years down the road.

It’s likely a 50-50 prospect on whether Petronas and its partners proceed with Pacific NorthWest; at most, B.C. could see two or three projects go ahead around the 2025-2027 time frame, he said.

“There are no guarantee any of these projects will go ahead,” King said Tuesday.

http://calgaryherald.com/business/energy/varcoe-lng-projects-stuck-in-limbo-but-b-c-still-confident-of-success


Let me repeat the important part…

"at most, B.C. could see two or three projects go ahead around the 2025-2027 time frame, he said."

Another 10 year delay for FID…Was Grant G correct…?

Indeed I was…and, you fine folk in Prince Rupert got the news first…

You are welcome

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#294

So what you’re saying is that your prediction of something happening last March will come true in 10 years time, 50-50 ?

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#295

Prince Rupert …city of pipe dreams

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#296

No. You said Petronus will pull the plug in March 2016.

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#297

They are pulling the plug who cares about the date!

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#298

Yup for the time being LNG is a sinking ship

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#299

Where’s your proof that they are “pulling the plug” ?

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#300

The NDP won the last election. Who cares about the date!

It will rain on Friday. Who cares about the date?

This entire thread is about a prediction that Grant made, about something happening in March 2016.

Grant also predicted the NDP would win the last election. I guess he was right about that too, it just hasn’t happened yet.

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#301

My dear Prince Rupert friends…look, I wrote in August 2015 that BC’s LNG fantasy was dead…Petronas had already been quietly shopping/selling their project…

plus the market isn’t there, plenty of cheap longterm gas available…you might want to check out my latest post…

Also, for the third time in the last 18 months Petronas has secured more gas…

http://www.worldoil.com/news/2016/10/19/qatargas-petronas-sign-five-year-lng-deal

Petronas can meet their contracted deliveries cheap…cheaper than B.C. gas…

Why would a cash-strapped state-owned energy company spend $billions to add more LNG into an already hyper-saturated market…you can’t store LNG cheaply, too expensive, its got to move…Check this out…


http://www.lngworldnews.com/indonesia-lng-projects-face-uncommitted-cargoes/

Indonesia: LNG projects face uncommitted cargoes

_Indonesian Tangguh and Bontang liquefied natural gas projects are facing oversupply for 2017 and 2018, as well as possible production cuts. _

Wiratmaja Puja, Indonesia’s director general of oil and gas, said that there are 63 cargoes for delivery in 2017 are currently uncommitted, Reuters reports.

He added that the projects are looking to sell the cargoes to committed buyers, saying that negotiations are currently ongoing for 13 cargoes.

Puja said it would be “real pity” if the projects had to cut production.

The two projects still have more than 60 cargoes uncommitted in 2018, with Puja saying, Indonesia’s two projects are still oversupplied.

Earlier this year, the final investment decision to build a third train at the Tangguh LNG project has been reached by the project participants.

BP, the operator of the Tangguh LNG project said the third liquefaction train will add 3.8 million tons per annum of production capacity to the existing facility, bringing total plant capacity to 11.4 mtpa, with first production expected in 2020.


The gas glut will extend to 2030…there is 40% more supply coming in the next 3 to 5 years as it is, projects already under construction…with Japan cutting it’s LNG use in half…

and now a money hungry natural gas possessing behemoth country Iran is entering the fray…Iran has the largest gas reserves in the world(check Wikipedia), no need to frak…Iran wants a big energy market share…

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-19/iran-talking-with-16-investors-to-bid-on-oil-and-gas-projects

Alaska is having the same problem, Governor Walker has taken over their proposal(after big energy walked away)…tax concessions, state money, he’s been to Asia a half dozen times…no committed buyers at a profitable price…

Lastly…Big energy going forward, they will look to third world countries to exploit…

Cheers

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#302

It seems he’s ignoring the fact that he’s 7 months past his prediction month. Some people can’t admit it when they’re wrong.

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