Although Lynton Crosby has only been acknowledged publicly to have recently been involved - is it probable that he has been manipulating behind the scenes for some time now?
After all, in any act of magic, isn’t it necessary to make it look like the magician has to beat insurmountable odds? Maybe the bumbling Conservative campaign until now has been a bit of a ruse: make the gullible believe the act of magic (in this case the resurgence of Stephen Harper and the Conservatives) is next to impossible if not impossible?
Instead of the black magic just ‘starting to bear fruit’ a theatrical image might been more appropriate: are we at the end of Act One - where the impossible task has been intentionally created (will Harper be able to rebound) - about to enter Act Two…where the magician sets off to beat those odds…in a very planned and measured manner? Followed by Act Three: the magician beats the odds!
Nope…a more prairie boy type superhero: born in an alien world, crash landed in the prairies, struggles to keep his true identity secret while harbouring super powers - Superman?….not quite: It’s Superharper (fighting for modified truth, controlled justice and the Conservative way!]
Clues that he’s about to come out fighting: 1)just like Clark Kent -his glasses have been put away, 2) he’s being followed by his own Lois Lane (Laureen), and….he’s about to draw a line in the sand - the economy….
[quote=“chien22”]Nope…a more prairie boy type superhero: born in an alien world, crash landed in the prairies, struggles to keep his true identity secret while harbouring super powers - Superman?….not quite: It’s Superharper (fighting for modified truth, controlled justice and the Conservative way!]
[/quote]
I think his real name is Harperman, one of Dr. Wily’s evil robot creations.
So the NDP are using an unreliable Papineau poll numbers to try win at all cost, and now every polling companies are mad at CROP for hurting their reputation:
The latest poll tracker results have the NDP slightly in front. If we had an election today there would be an even split in seats for the NDP and the Concervatives, each getting 114.
Latest numbers show NDP starting to fall back a bit with Liberals/Conservatives tied for 1st. Poll is by Nanons based on 3 day rolling average of 1000 respondents.
[quote=“bthedog”]Latest numbers show NDP starting to fall back a bit with Liberals/Conservatives tied for 1st. Poll is by Nanons based on 3 day rolling average of 1000 respondents.
More signs of weakness for the NDP…their majority in Quebec is starting to fracture a bit…and they are losing ground to the Conservatives here in BC. If the trend of the last few weeks continues, the NDP will likely lose the election as their leads in Quebec and BC are the only thing keeping them in this race. Eroding support in those provinces, especially Quebec is not good at all for their chances.
Leger Marketing’s latest poll (with a larger sample size of 2,115, and margin of error of 2.1pp) seem to confirm Nanos’ last rolling averages, with Libs and Cons tied at 32.
Latest poll shows NDP starting to fall back a bit behind the Conservatives and Liberals. NDP at 26.9% is now 6.1% behind the leading Conservatives at 33%. Liberals sitting at 31.6%.
And in the “put your money where your mouth is poll”, it appears that bettors at the online betting site paddypower.com have seen a change.
In late August I told you that they had a variety of odds on the outcome of our election with an NDP minority at 6/4 and a Conservative minority at 9/4 among a whole slew of other possibilities.
I have been checking each week and the odds have stayed the same until this morning.
Now they have gotten rid of a bunch of those bets and left us with two.
Party with most seats after the election. No numbers, no majority/minority. Just the most seats.
Conservatives favoured at 6/5. NDP at 6/4. Liberals at 5/2.
Prime Minister after the election which interestingly goes against the previous outcome as bettors seem to favour Mulcair as PM (coalition?) as he is at even odds while Harper is at 6/4 and Trudeau at 5/2.
For some reason they no longer have the over/under on seat outcome. They originally had the NDP at 126.5 and the Conservatives at 122.5 It may come back but I am guessing there was a flurry of activity on Conservative overs and NDP unders that they had to pull it.
Agreed. It does not look great for the NDP at the moment. On the other hand all three parties have, give or take a percentage point, a 30% rating in the polls. I’m thinking a minority government is likely.
Agreed. It does not look great for the NDP at the moment. On the other hand all three parties have, give or take a percentage point, a 30% rating in the polls. I’m thinking a minority government is likely.[/quote]
I am thinking that the Liberals are doing a better job of painting themselves as the better alternative to the “Anti-Harper” movement. The NDP is killing their chances in Quebec over refusing to support the anti-Niqab sentiment for citizenship ceremonies. Support for the “anti-niqab at citizenship ceremonies” in Quebec is close to 95%…the NDP is on the wrong side of that and it is likely hurting them in a province they need to dominate in order to win the election.
If the poll numbers for the Liberals continue to climb at the expense of the NDP…I suspect the NDP house cards will fall fast and hard as many left voters will place strageic votes for the Liberals in swing ridings.
For me as a Conservative supporter, I am much more comfortable with the Liberals winning over the NDP, so this makes me happy. The Liberals are certainly more leftist than they ever have been in history…but they still are more conservative than the NDP.
[quote=“bthedog”]
I am thinking that the Liberals are doing a better job of painting themselves as the better alternative to the “Anti-Harper” movement. [/quote]
Yes. The NDP needs to get back on message before their fortunes fade. I’m surprised that Justin is doing as well as he is. The next three weeks will be fascinating.