Another poll

No, it was the Harper government that was on the ‘wrong’ side of the Niqab issue; they lost in the Federal Court, as on other occasions when they have tried to infringe individual liberties protected by the Charter. Neil Macdonald has an interesting article on the topic: < cbc.ca/news/politics/canada- … 79?cmp=rss >.

The irony of Harper’s position is that, as the article points out, he characterizes Niqabs as being symbolic of female oppression and then when Muslim women come to Canada a male dominated government tries to tell them what they cannot wear. They’re supposed to trade one master for another it seems.

The Liberals have the same position as the NDP, but they are turning out to be more effective communicators. Polls indicate that they will likely make greater gains in Quebec than the Conservatives. Justin characterizes the issue as being one of ‘pro-choice’ as in we may not like the choice but we respect the right to choose. The Conservatives will likely pick up a few seats, probably at the expense of the Bloc, but that only makes sense since neither of them are strong supporters of constitutional rights and the courts that decide them on especially thorny issues.

Personally I wish there was a law against men (mostly) wearing ballcaps in restaurants and at indoor events, but unfortunately its their right to look ridiculous and in some cases discourteous to the host. Them’s are fightin words no doubt, but such is life in a country with a Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

[quote=“BTravenn”]

No, it was the Harper government that was on the ‘wrong’ side of the Niqab issue; they lost in the Federal Court, as on other occasions when they have tried to infringe individual liberties protected by the Charter. Neil Macdonald has an interesting article on the topic: < cbc.ca/news/politics/canada- … 79?cmp=rss >.

The irony of Harper’s position is that, as the article points out, he characterizes Niqabs as being symbolic of female oppression and then when Muslim women come to Canada a male dominated government tries to tell them what they cannot wear. They’re supposed to trade one master for another it seems.

The Liberals have the same position as the NDP, but they are turning out to be more effective communicators. Polls indicate that they will likely make greater gains in Quebec than the Conservatives. Justin characterizes the issue as being one of ‘pro-choice’ as in we may not like the choice but we respect the right to choose. The Conservatives will likely pick up a few seats, probably at the expense of the Bloc, but that only makes sense since neither of them are strong supporters of constitutional rights and the courts that decide them on especially thorny issues.

Personally I wish there was a law against men (mostly) wearing ballcaps in restaurants and at indoor events, but unfortunately its their right to look ridiculous and in some cases discourteous to the host. Them’s are fightin words no doubt, but such is life in a country with a Charter of Rights and Freedoms.[/quote]

There’s a big difference from someone wearing a ballcap in restaurants and a woman wearing a Niqab during a citizenship ceremony. I don’t believe anyone should be able to be unrecognizable during a citizenship ceremony.
Niqab isn’t a religious symbol, its cultural. Its Muslim men dictating to women what to wear. Muslim women have been taught its wrong to show anything but their eyes in public.

[quote=“Gracies Mom”]
There’s a big difference from someone wearing a ballcap in restaurants and a woman wearing a Niqab during a citizenship ceremony. I don’t believe anyone should be able to be unrecognizable during a citizenship ceremony.
Niqab isn’t a religious symbol, its cultural. Its Muslim men dictating to women what to wear. Muslim women have been taught its wrong to show anything but their eyes in public.[/quote]

Oh I see, so Zunera Ishaq is confused about the difference between what’s religious and what’s cultural? Here’s her evidence to the court:

“My religious beliefs would compel me to refuse to take off my veil in the context of a citizenship oath ceremony, and I firmly believe that based on existing policies, I would therefore be denied Canadian citizenship. I feel that the governmental policy regarding veils at citizenship oath ceremonies is a personal attack on me, my identity as a Muslim woman and my religious beliefs.”

Or maybe the judge got it wrong in concluding that she “is a devout Sunni Muslim who voluntarily follows the Hanafi school of thought”? As a by the way she had no problems removing her Niqab for identification purposes prior to the ceremony. < decisions.fct-cf.gc.ca/fc-cf/dec … IGlzaGFxAQ >. Since the issue cannot be about identification and security, what is the issue?

That the Harper Conservatives would single out a handful of Muslim women as the latest wedge issue does not speak well of them. We have far more important issues than that both here and internationally.

[quote=“BTravenn”]

No, it was the Harper government that was on the ‘wrong’ side of the Niqab issue; they lost in the Federal Court, as on other occasions when they have tried to infringe individual liberties protected by the Charter. Neil Macdonald has an interesting article on the topic: < cbc.ca/news/politics/canada- … 79?cmp=rss >.
.[/quote]

Actually, no…he is not on the wrong side of the argument in the context I was arguing which is this election/polling…legally yes, but opinion wise no…and it is opinions around this issue that are influencing the election/polls both provincially in Quebec and across Canada, not the legality of the issue. Furthermore I believe the Conservatives are appealing, so the court battle around this issue is not over yet.

Despite the federal courts deeming a ban on the niqab for ceremonial reasons as unconstitutional, recent polls suggest that despite the courts decision, 85% of Canadians and 93% of Quebec think they should be banned…and this opinion is affecting the polls…especially for the NDP in Quebec. Many are including Mr. Mulcair’s support of the court decision as a main reason why the NDP is starting to crumble in Quebec polls. The NDP need to keep their large lead in Quebec to win this election.

The Conservatives are gaining support in Quebec for their stance…so I would not necessarily say this issue is not important.

[quote=“BTravenn”]
Or maybe the judge got it wrong in concluding that she “is a devout Sunni Muslim who voluntarily follows the Hanafi school of thought”? As a by the way she had no problems removing her Niqab for identification purposes prior to the ceremony. < decisions.fct-cf.gc.ca/fc-cf/dec … IGlzaGFxAQ >. Since the issue cannot be about identification and security, what is the issue?

That the Harper Conservatives would single out a handful of Muslim women as the latest wedge issue does not speak well of them. We have far more important issues than that both here and internationally.[/quote]

Exactly. I find the use of the niqab very strange and if used to subjugate women abhorrent. But I also find other religious traditions like denying women the right to be priests equally odd and undemocratic.

These women are unveiled in private for identification. They veil themselves during the public ceremony. It saddens me that this is actually an issue.

On a different note.

One day later, the latest odds at paddypower put the conservatives at better than even odds (8/11 from 6/5) to have the most seats after the election. The NDP have slipped from 6/4 to 5/2 tied with the Liberals who remained unchanged.

Remember this is just most seats not minority or majority.

And remember this has nothing to do with polls or the opinions of expert political analysts.

Bookies and betting houses base odds on the amount of money being wagered. Right now, the smart money is on the Conservatives. paddypower is hoping the changed odds will get people betting NDP or Liberal to ensure they don’t lose their shirt should the Conservatives win.

Niqab? Seriously guys? How did this quickly become an election issue?

We can thank Lynton Crosby for his dark arts of political distraction.

[quote=“PLA”]Niqab? Seriously guys? How did this quickly become an election issue?

We can thank Lynton Crosby for his dark arts of political distraction.[/quote]

He’s certainly earning his pay. I’m hoping the campaign will get back to the issues.

The Harper government did appeal the ruling, but a couple of weeks ago the Federal Court of Appeal affirmed the trial judge’s decision that the policy of banning niqabs interfered with duties under the Citizenship Act to allow the greatest possible religious freedom during solemnization or affirmation of the oath.

The appeal judges declined to hear Charter arguments since they considered that unnecessary to determine the manner. They also wished to avoid needless delay in order to leave open the possibility that Ms Ishaq will receive citizenship in time to exercise voting rights in the upcoming election.
< decisions.fca-caf.gc.ca/fca-caf/ … AFaXNoYXEB >.

The government might apply for leave to appeal to the Supreme Court of Canada, but the greater likelihood seems to be that the legal battle between the government of Steve Harper and Zunera Ishaq is over.

I agree, however, that the Conservatives will likely continue to churn the issue as a vote getting strategy even though as a practical matter there is no point to that. I suspect that after the election the niqab issue, having served its partisan purposes of deflecting discussion away from more important questions, will go away, much like the issue of turbans in our police forces, the military and Legion beer parlors during the 90s.

NDP continue to lose ground across the country…their once sizeable lead over the Conservatives in BC is virtually gone now.

“The race for top choice in B.C. intensified in the latest poll, with support for the NDP and the Conservatives taking a dip, while the Liberals saw a surge in their numbers. In B.C., support for the NDP was at 31.9 per cent, with the Conservatives in second at 30.4 per cent and the Liberals in third with 29.5 per cent. The Liberals gained 6.6 percentage points over Tuesday’s numbers, while the NDP dropped 4.8 per cent and the Conservatives dipped by 2.8 per cent.”

ctvnews.ca/politics/election … -1.2587770

Change is in the air in Conservative Alberta and opposition parties stand to gain

[quote]Here’s a political brain-bender: Alberta could be the decider in the federal election campaign.
It might happen. If this election all comes down to a handful of seats determining who wins or who loses, Alberta is in the running to play the role of kingmaker.[/quote]

Change is in the air in Conservative Alberta and opposition parties stand to gain

[quote=“hitest”]Change is in the air in Conservative Alberta and opposition parties stand to gain

[quote]Here’s a political brain-bender: Alberta could be the decider in the federal election campaign.
It might happen. If this election all comes down to a handful of seats determining who wins or who loses, Alberta is in the running to play the role of kingmaker.[/quote]

Change is in the air in Conservative Alberta and opposition parties stand to gain[/quote]

The majority of the seats in Alberta will go Conservative.

Speaking of Alberta and the NDP, there are some Albertans who are having difficulty adjusting to the reality that began 5 months ago. lol

facebook.com/AlbertansagainstNDP?fref=ts

Another day, another bad day for the NDP in the polls. The NDP which was holding a solid lead in BC a couple weeks ago, is now polling in 3rd place across our province. The Conservatives now have the widest lead nationally over the NDP since the writ was dropped back in August. Nanos Research is now starting to suggest that this federal election is going to be a classic two-party race between the Libs and Cons. The NDP is also continuing to see their lead in Quebec deteriorate from a high of 50% support in 1st week of September, down 16% to 34% today.

ctvnews.ca/politics/election/nanos-polls

REGIONAL BREAKDOWN:

BRITISH COLUMBIA:
Conservatives - 32%
Liberals - 30%
NDP - 29%
Green - 9%

PRAIRIES:
Conservatives - 49%
Liberals - 27%
NDP - 21%
Green - 3%

ONTARIO:
Conservatives - 36%
Liberals - 36%
NDP - 23%
Greeen - 6%

QUEBEC:
NDP - 34%
Liberals - 24%
Conservatives - 21%
Bloc - 19%
Green - 1%

ATLANTIC:
Liberals - 53%
NDP - 22%
Conservatives - 21%
Green - 4%

Yes, the evidence is mounting that the wheels are falling off of the NDP’s campaign, both in the polls and also in impressions of the Munk foreign policy debate, where Trudeau came out ahead, Harper had a strong showing and Mulcair was a ‘non-factor’ < cbc.ca/news/politics/canada- … 49?cmp=rss >. Sometimes Tom works too hard at being bland and a safe pair of hands.

One can only imagine what this campaign would have been like if Jack Layton was still alive; probably a lot different and perhaps a turning point in our political history.

Edit: and much the same result on the economic debate, with Harper marginally ahead of Trudeau and Mulcair far behind < cbc.ca/news/politics/vote-co … -1.3234556 >.

Indeed. Mulcair showed promise in August, but, hope seems to be fading for the orange crush this time.

I wonder. I was not a big fan of Layton myself and the Orange Crush did nothing more than give Harper his majority. I am not sure how strong NDP support was last time. The Conservatives did a good job skewering Ignatieff that people who couldn’t support Harper had little choice.

Not sure if the same applies this year. If I am any example of the non-Conservative, I only care who loses (hopefully Harper) not who wins. I have no issue with Nathan Cullen and as a usual supporter of the NDP I have no problem voting for him. However, I am not all that impressed with Mulcair, the campaign, or the platform.

If I lived in a riding where the Liberal had the best shot at beating the Conservative, I would have no problem voting for that Liberal. In fact if I lived in a riding where the Liberals and the NDP were the frontrunners and a Conservative had no chance of winning, I could very easily see myself voting Liberal.

I like the Liberal plan of investing in infrastructure. It sounds more NDP than the NDP. And I don’t think Trudeau is as weak as his critics contend.

I am hoping for a minority government, and that the Liberals and NDP can figure some way to work together.

Then you have Gill , he spoke inglish to ear your concern .

I almost certainly liked Layton even less than you did, but where he really succeeded was in Quebec. He effectively destroyed the Bloc, which went from 47 seats to 4, while the NDP went from 1 seat to 59. That was an incredible feat and a great victory for federalism, from which the Bloc has not recovered. The CBC poll tracker projects that the Bloc will win only 1 seat this time. That’s Layton’s greatest legacy.

The NDP are still projected to win 48 seats in Quebec, while the Liberals and to a lesser extent the Conservatives are projected to make gains, respectively of 11 and 6 seats, at the expense of the NDP and the Bloc.

Latest poll shows the NDP at their lowest numbers since the campaign began. Libs & Tories still in tight race for top. Looks like the dominoes are starting to fall for the NDP…Liberals are winning the left vote message and I think swing voters between NDP/Liberals are going for the Liberals.

ctvnews.ca/politics/election … -1.2591615

[quote=“bthedog”]Latest poll shows the NDP at their lowest numbers since the campaign began. Libs & Tories still in tight race for top. Looks like the dominoes are starting to fall for the NDP…Liberals are winning the left vote message and I think swing voters between NDP/Liberals are going for the Liberals.

ctvnews.ca/politics/election … -1.2591615[/quote]

If you go to the actual poll, it not only shows who people will vote for

Liberals 33.5%
Conservatives 31.9%
NDP 25.9%
Bloc 4.3%
Green 3.9%
Undecided 8.9%

but it also asked what parties people would consider voting for and what party would be their second choice.

Interestingly, 39% of conservatives do not have a second choice. They are by far the most loyal followed by the Bloc at 21%, the Liberals at 17%, the NDP at 14% and the Green at 8%.

It is also interesting to see where people would go with their second choice. We hear talk of the Green being spoilers of the NDP which they kind of are as 50% of Greens would vote NDP second. Not sure how many seats that would impact. The favour, however, isn’t returned as 48% of NDP voters would pick the Liberals second while only 17% of the NDP favour the Greens. And 48% of the Liberals would vote NDP if they had a second choice; 22% would go to the Conservatives.

When asked who they would consider voting for the breakdown is as follows.

Liberals 49.9%
NDP 44.8%
Conservatives 42.3%
Bloc 29.3% (Not sure of this number as who outside of Quebec would have the opportunity unless this is just 29% of Quebec)
Greens 24.3%

With those numbers, I may not like but I can understand seat projections at CBC’s poll tracker

Conservatives 126
Liberals 107
NDP 102
Bloc 2
Greens 1

It would be fairer to have the Liberals at 126 and the Conservatives at 102 but at least it is a minority.

But poll tracker also gives best case, with the Conservatives reaching 162 just shy of the 170 needed for a majority. The Liberals and the NDP come no where close to a majority even with slightly better numbers.

In other words we run the risk (again) of having a party that doesn’t represent the wishes of 58% of the population having a majority and free to do whatever they want for four years. Remember this isn’t 58% of the people not voting for them. This is 58% of the people who would NEVER CONSIDER voting for them.

Hopefully we will get a minority, but omehow we need a find an electoral system that allows us to vote for the party of our choice, where voting splitting and strategic voting are minimized, and still get the result that represents the wishes of the majority.