[quote=“DWhite”]
Might be just as interesting to following their odds as any poll in Canada.
paddypower.com/bet/other-pol … ds=2134517[/quote]
Sure. I’m guessing odds makers likely use some type of poll to come up with their predictions. I’m wondering if the federal polls are any more accurate than our provincial polls during the provincial election of 2013. Time will tell.
A day later at Paddypower. Odds of an NDP majority have improved from 16/1 to 10/1 although the Conservatives also improved from 14/1 to 12/1 and the Liberals from 25/1 to 20/1. Gamblers still believe an NDP minority is the best bet improving from 13/8 to 6/4 while a Conservative minority held steady at 9/4.
NDP Minority 6/4
Conservative Minority 9/4
Liberal Minority 4/1
NDP/Liberal Coalition 9/2
NDP Majority 10/1
Conservative Majority 12/1
Liberal Majority 20/1
Any Conservative Coalition 25/1
[quote=“DWhite”]Gamblers still believe an NDP minority is the best bet improving from 13/8 to 6/4 while a Conservative minority held steady at 9/4.
[/quote]
Agreed. I’m thinking that’s a safe bet.
It will be really interesting to see who calls it better, the gamblers or pollsters.
I am reading the fine print on the paddypower page.
“Applies to the make up of the first government following the next general election. Cabinet members only will count. Supply and confidence arrangements will not count. Partners may be major or minor as long as they form part of the cabinet.”
And it got me thinking, which is dangerous when I am bored.
According to the most recent poll tracker (Friday) the Conservatives could win 92-132 seats; the NDP 124-153 seats; the Liberals 70-106 seats and the Greens one seat.
Let’s play.
NDP 144 seats as per Soggy’s post.
Liberal 70 the minimum projected
Greens 1
That leaves the Conservatives with 123 seats, not that far behind the NDP and it could be even closer e.g 137 - 130.
Normally, a governing party that loses an election with the numbers I have suggested will resign and allow the party with the most seats to try to govern with a minority but it is not required. Mackenzie King in 1925 had fewer seats than the Conservatives and tried to maintain power with the support of the third party. Including a bunch of other reasons, it led to quite the constitutional brouhaha. Harper dissolved parliament in 2008 rather than face the prospect of a Liberal/NDP coalition. which some felt was unconstitutional.
Question: Do you think Harper has the ego to maintain power and try to bring in acceptable legislation that either the NDP or the Liberals could support while holding fewer seats than the NDP?
[quote=“DWhite”]
Question: Do you think Harper has the ego to maintain power and try to bring in acceptable legislation that either the NDP or the Liberals could support while holding fewer seats than the NDP?[/quote]
Given his past practice I think Harper will work hard to cling to power if he loses his majority. I think if the NDP ends up with a minority of seats they will try to woo the Liberals into forming a coalition government. T
[quote=“bthedog”]Globe and Mail still predicting a Conservative win.
theglobeandmail.com/news/pol … e25377958/[/quote]
After Clark’s annihilation of the NDP in 2013 nothing will surprise me. Interesting days ahead. 
[quote=“hitest”]
[quote=“bthedog”]Globe and Mail still predicting a Conservative win.
theglobeandmail.com/news/pol … e25377958/[/quote]
After Clark’s annihilation of the NDP in 2013 nothing will surprise me. Interesting days ahead. [/quote]
That win will go down as one of the worst predicted races in Canadian history.
Every poll had the NDP winning by a comfortable 10-15 points (except for 1 poll I believe which showed a very tight race)…the end result was a Liberal government with an improved majority. As a BC Liberal supporter it was spectacular to watch happen live.
Looks like Eric Grenier’s gargantuan poll calculating machine had the Liberals in second and the Conservatives in third.
That kid in Dalhousie busted for threatening to kill 20-352.0 people? My brother in law says that was prevented by Bill C-51. That he was ratted out by his shrink is just ‘liberal media’ nonsense. He and my sis will vote for Harper regardless of recognizing all his other failings and polling 2-3 times more Liberal than Tory on online tests.
Its also their Christian duty to vote for someone who’ll drop bombs on Muslim heads.
Went to the family cabin with them hoping to recover all the sci-fi books, WW2 histories I brought there in the 1970s and Dad’s old 1940-1955 National Geographics to find she’d ‘donated’ them all to an access center and there was nothing to read in the cabin but Jesus books. Hundreds of them! My parents beloved vacation cabin has turned into a Bible retreat.
not feeling very tolerant today…
[quote=“hitest”]A minority government under Trudeau or Mulcair?
Canadians want a new PM, poll suggests[/quote]
These polls are all ridiculous. There are so many, and they all say different things. For me the only one that counts is the final results on election day. Though I do get a chuckle out of some of them. 
Agreed. It will be interesting to see in a little over 5 weeks if any of these polls accurately predict an outcome.
Latest Nanos poll:
NDP - 32.7
Liberals - 30.8
Conservatives - 26.2
Be careful what you wish for…it appears that the Conservatives have heard the polled sentiment for change and are about to oblige: it appears we’re about to come face to face with the ‘L(W)izard of Oz’.
Who you ask? Lynton Crosby the conservative poll master/strategist extraordinaire…has been invited in to micromanage and strategize Stephen Harper’s Conservative campaign.
macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/ … d-from-oz/
Although the MacLean’s article is relatively benign the Tyee has prepared a list of things people should know about Lynton Crosby:
thetyee.ca/News/2015/09/11/L … by-Things/
For those of you who are going to complain about the article source it is a very good summary of concerns that surface in both the British and Australian press…including the story of boat refugees throwing children overboard. (Number 5).
We’re “off to see the L(W)izard of Oz” .
Interesting indeed. This election is too close to call at this point. I read a recent poll (yesterday) that gives the NDP a slight 2 percent advantage.
I suspect that the race will continue to tighten up as we near October 19th.
Seems like Lynton Crosby’s dark magic is starting to bear fruit… according to polls.
Yeah, just checked that out. We’re over a month away. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.