Dunning-Kruger Effect

Actually read about this in an article on poker.

The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which “people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it.â€

I had a really long post about the weird version of catch-22 of this effect, but then I just deleted it.  Because I wasn’t certain my conclusions were correct :smile:

Dunning was interviewed by Errol Morris recently, in his NYTimes blog:

opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/20 … dilemma-1/

“Something’s Wrong but You’ll Never Know What It Is”

I think a lot of politicians are elected because they Do something. It might not be the right thing to do or the right thing might not be to do ANYTHING…this Dunning-Kruger Effect fits in well with that: “Git 'er done!!” or “Kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out!!”. It’s the whole idea that if you just grab the bull by the horns you can make something work out the way it should be.

Perhaps the smarter move would have closed the bull’s gate; no need to grab anything then.

I think a competent leader (foreman, managers, whatever) surrounds themself with intelligent people, those that may not be able to make a decision themselves but have good information. This enables the leader to take action when necessary because he has no trouble acting when he wants to.

This Effect may also therefore explain the Peter Principle (in a hierarchy every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence).

I see it every damn day. People who know they don’t know and then argue til they’re blue in the face.
everyone else’s computer works except mine, so why are you looking at the computer stupid? It’s obviously the network.
My cordless phone crackles when my wireless is on and if I talk on it my Internet cuts in and out. But I don’t buy your ‘claim’ they’re interfering with each other. I’ll call someone else.
Or the guy harassing the Pres of the broadcast society outside my shop today, failing to understand they don’t actually put the signal all the way into your tv, you have to get the proper antenna and tune your tv to get the signals…

Never attribute to malice that which can be explained by incompetence.