Some grim polling numbers are emerging for the Conservatives. The Liberals are making a comeback it seems.
[quote=“hitest”]Some grim polling numbers are emerging for the Conservatives. The Liberals are making a comeback it seems.
Conservatives losing support to Liberals, pollster warns[/quote]
Probably more of a problem for Mr. Mulcair and the NDP though, the Liberals will re-patriate much of the support that bled NDP in the last election.
Conservative base isn’t going to go anywhere I imagine.
[quote=“Old major”]
[quote=“hitest”]Some grim polling numbers are emerging for the Conservatives. The Liberals are making a comeback it seems.
Conservatives losing support to Liberals, pollster warns[/quote]
Probably more of a problem for Mr. Mulcair and the NDP though, the Liberals will re-patriate much of the support that bled NDP in the last election.
Conservative base isn’t going to go anywhere I imagine.[/quote]
Agreed. This is not good news for the NDP. I think the Fall election of 2015 will be a dog fight between the Liberals and the Conservatives. Actually, the poll numbers suggest that Harper’s base is eroding. More Canadians are identifying themselves as Liberal.
The NDP under Mulcair has been gambling their future on votes in Quebec, particularly with their rejection of the Clarity Act and support for Quebec being able to secede with 50%+1.
This editorial from the G&M last year has turned out to be prophetic:
theglobeandmail.com/globe-de … le7936888/
As Preston Manning put it in a recent interview, looking back at longer term trends, the NDP “vacated the West” while the Conservatives created a power alliance between the West and Ontario. It’s no longer just about Ontario and Quebec, which is what Mulcair is fixated on, perhaps not surprisingly as a long serving Quebec MNA before switching to the federal NDP.
The first major poll for 2014 shows that about 1/5 of Conservative and NDP voters in 2011 have switched to the Liberals. Also interesting though are the regional numbers. The Liberals lead the NDP in Quebec and are second to the Conservatives across the West, including in BC.
huffingtonpost.ca/2014/01/23 … 53789.html
The NDP’s Quebec oriented strategy does not appear to be paying off.
As for Mulcair, he did well during the Senate scandals, at least among those who enjoy or who have time for the political theatre of the House of Commons, but he seems to be a politican who harkens back to a different age. While Trudeau has talked about decriminalizing and regulating (and taxing) marijuana, for instance, Mulcair would appoint a Royal Commission to look into the matter.
The future does not look promising for the NDP next time, with it’s flawed strategy and current leadership.
Ask Adrian Dix and Christy Clark - the only poll that is important is the one taken on Election Day. The other polls are simply fodder for political junkies.
Add Danielle Smith and Alison Redford to the list.
Add Steven Harper to the list. From the fabulous archives of HTMF, we have an almost identical thread from 2010, about a year away from an election that gave Harper a majority.
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=16079&p=164778&hilit=polling+numbers#p164778
Last Spring I was hesitant to give Dix the win as I knew that Clark was and is a formidable politician. There is no denying that Harper is an able politician.
I do think that Trudeau has the charisma that what’s his name lacked in 2011. I don’t think that Trudeau is as smart as his Father, but, that may not matter as he has undeniable charm.
I’m not ready to make any predictions other than I think the contest in 2015 will likely be between Harper and Trudeau. I think it likely that Mulcair may end up in third place. Mulcair is not as popular as Layton was.
I look forward to eating crow in 2015. 
