[quote=“jesus”]Uhh alcan is real. Its a multi billion dollar project that is really going on and is driving prices. Its not speculation its real. If nothing else comes prices will come down but right now there is a reason beyond pure speculation for the prices. The piss ass projects in rjpert like the pellet plant just dont compare.
The port was operational long before the price jump so you cant say that has anything to do with it. These high prices are not a result of development or prosperity like in kitimat. If something goes ahead great you will make money. if nothi.g does there will be a massive correction. Houskng in terrace is much more reasonably priced than rupert and therefore if nothing goes forward in kitimat you stand to lose less money than in rupert because the correction will be smaller. Imo now is the time to sell assets in rupert and buy elsewhere where prices are undervalued.
Kitimat has as many projects proposed as rupert if not more and if i recall correctly they are closer to realization than the ones in rupert. So please tell me why should i risk MORE money in a notoriously business unfriendly city that currently has nothing going for it but the usual hopes and dreams? Big things are comi.g right? Well why wouldnt i choose to risk less money that will gain the same if not bigger return? The risk is the same its a no brainer[/quote]
Both BTHEDOG and I both said other than Alcan what else is going on, and your first words were “Uhhh Alcan is real”. Nothing Jesus is guaranteed with LNG for either areas, we could have missed the boat on that. I have lived my whole life in the Northwest I have seen it all, spending my youth in Terrace and adult life in Rupert. I beg to differ about house prices in Terrace, they are not more reasonably priced. Terrace is not a union town so the wages earned are not as high. There is no crystal ball telling us what exactly is going to happen, its a wait and see game.[/quote]
Other than nothing what is driving prices in rupert? Speculation. There is a reason for kitimat prices and none for rupert prices. As for the work reduction yes there will be a reduction in alcan employees mostly through retirement. There will however be maintenance contraxtors that will be employing people. The modernization is less about automation and more about being able to create more product for less money.
Prince rupert is its own worst enemy. Its your money do what you want but I wouldnt touch that highly inflated market. Terrace is a good investment imo but almost amywhere is better than rupert right now.
[quote=“investor”]Seems like many of the locals (both here and other individuals I have spoken to) are fairly skeptical of the LNG development. I’m not sure if this is based on an interpretation of the facts as they are, or whether its just from experiencing 2 or 3 ‘false dawns’ in the past. Either way, it means that real estate prices will probably rise until local investors change their minds.
As an outsider, it seems extremely likely that at least 1-2 of these projects near Rupert gets the green light (Petronas + 1 other?). Add that to the various other projects that are happening, plus the increased volume going through the port, and it seems like a no-brainer to invest.
As for the argument that real estate prices have risen a lot already, I actually view that as a good thing. I like to buy in a rising market, and the experience of other Canadian towns that have undergone this kind of transformation suggests that there is lots more price appreciation to go. Also consider the lack of housing (and no real plans to build more), plus the fact that Rupert property was undervalued for a long time anyway. I think the speculative bubble has likely only just started.[/quote]
Many are jaded from past industrial developments that gave promise but never occurred. Couple that with an increasingly prominent anti-development sentiment and we’re left with the attitudes that you’ve picked up on already as an outsider.
What are the chances of Northern Gateway being rerouted to Prince Rupert? I’ve seen it proposed a few times in the press and it seems like a more sensible solution, environmentally speaking. I guess it would mean more pipeline and therefore more costs for Enbridge though.
announcements relating to Northern Gateway, the oil refinery and their 3 LNG projects (none of which have made investment commitments). Also Alcan has been around for years in that community…things started jumping there when construction began on modernizing it.
What are the chances of Northern Gateway being rerouted to Prince Rupert? I’ve seen it proposed a few times in the press and it seems like a more sensible solution, environmentally speaking. I guess it would mean more pipeline and therefore more costs for Enbridge though.[/quote]
I would certainly agree that there is a chance that PR is going to be used a backup plan (from a shipping standpoint it is makes MUCH more sense to ship from PR than it does Kitimat)…but even a pipeline to PR would meet heavy resistance from locals. I would say oil-by-rail is a much more realistic and likely alternative…this is something that could easily be done as CN already has a the right of way here on rail and would not need to do any environmental assessments or get any approval from native groups to get that oil to the coast. There are already rumblings of this being in the works fro PR.
I would certainly agree that there is a chance that PR is going to be used a backup plan (from a shipping standpoint it is makes MUCH more sense to ship from PR than it does Kitimat)…but even a pipeline to PR would meet heavy resistance from locals. I would say oil-by-rail is a much more realistic and likely alternative…this is something that could easily be done as CN already has a the right of way here on rail and would not need to do any environmental assessments or get any approval from native groups to get that oil to the coast. There are already rumblings of this being in the works fro PR.
I believe there would be too much opposition for oil regardless of it being by rail or pipeline for it to happen. The CN line is already pretty congested and there’s no way they could leave the level crossing on the highway. I would also think VIA would discontinue service as its already effected by the amount of freight trains that travel on the line now.
I was looking at Port Edward, but I think its a riskier prospect for the following reasons:
If the LNG projects don’t come through, there is nothing supporting real estate prices there. On the other hand, Rupert has an improving economy whether LNG happens or not. The downside in Port Edward is much greater.
There seems to be much more land available to build on in Port Edward.
There are no amenities, shops etc in Port Edward. The executives and well-paid workers who are on the projects will want to live somewhere with restaurants/shops/bars.
More ironically, at least to you PLA, Terrace people will also drive that same 1.5 hrs. west for the same reason, excluding Smallmart of course. Mostly its just getting away for a day or two.
