Predictions for Tomorrow

Voting for tomorrow…

Been thinking that I would share my predictions for tomorrow’s outcome.  I realise that it is a bit of a fools game, and could totally be blown out of the water in terms of what really transpires.    However, it is more entertaining to speculate on the outcomes and politics, at a respectful level, is both theatre and a spectator sport!

So if the weather cooperates, I think the following will be the successful candidates and not necessarily in the order presented: 


Anna Ashley
She is at the top of the ballot and many studies on voting behaviour indicate that alphabetically being at the top will often result in an additional 2-5% more votes - this could make the difference in a tight race.  This of course is in addition to the fact that she has been one person who has had the courage to challenge City Hall on its integrity and lack of accountability.  I think people who want a change will look at her as being a potentially good agent for change.  She has strong roots among the younger generation, as a member of Gen “X” and having been a school teacher.  She also has some support among the sporting community for her commitment to high school sports.

Gina Garon
She comes from a long time family with strong roots among the older families of PR.  She has strong support among the older, senior generation that are often the highest voter demographic in terms of turning out at the ballot box.  She too will also be seen as being a good candidate for change.  She also has served on the Chamber of Commerce and is familiar with the many challenges that our business community faces and some ideas on how to correct them.

Sheila Gordon-Payne
She was a first term councillor this past term, and she will represent some form of continuity for the community.  She probably did not do herself any favours with her approach at the Chances Candidate Forum, but she will have some strong support from the health care employees and from the business community given her familial ties and connections.  She does seem to take the concerns of her neighbours into consideration and is willing to advocate on their behalf.  When I say neighbours, I refer to her neighbours on Graham Avenue.

Nelson Kinney
An incumbent to provide more continuity on the next council.  He is popular among longtime Rupertites and has solid support from the seniors in town.  His heart is in the right place and he is more than willing to put the interests of the community ahead of his own personal agenda.

Joy Thorkelson
Another incumbent to provide more continuity on council.  This past term, even though she was occasionally a dissenting voice on Council,(ie: box store development, etc.) she did win people over with her preparation.  She often times was one of few councillors that read the agenda and came prepared with her own thoughts and questions.  She also took some initiative with the Green Task Force and seems to be willing to be an agent for change on some fronts. 

And lastly …

Erica Rolston
I think the desire in the community to have people at the Council table to voice concerns and issues and to ensure that other non-traditional voices are heard, will tip the balance in Erica’s favour.  She has some good friends supporting her and she has governmental experience having served as a constituency assistant for both the MLA and MP.  She seems to have a good grasp of how to get things done.

Others fighting it out on the bubble for the last spot:

Kathy Bedard, Tony Briglio, Mario Castelli and Paddy Greene.

I suspect that too many people want change on Council and if that holds true tomorrow, then I do suspect that the Councillors most at risk would be Bedard and Briglio.  On Bedard, people may look at her absentee rate at Council and that she has been a close ally to Mayor Pond.  While she may be a property owner, she is not a resident and her connection is perceived by some to not be a strong as it ought to be. 

On Briglio, I believe many people are tired of hearing Tony talk and talk and talk with little to show for it.  He was hurt significantly by his incident at the beer garden and that will have lost him some support. Despite being the Chair of the Hospital District, I do think that people wanting to make some changes will look not to Tony but others.

Regarding Mario and Paddy, I do think that they are respected, but that it is a matter of whether they can get enough voters out and whether they will be the fourth, fifth, sixth choice on enough ballots to get in. 

So, I offer this prognostication up for discussion and deliberation and it is offered in good faith and does not reflect who I have voted for in the advance polls, but rather my best guess as to what may transpire tomorrow.   

I hope your last place predictions are correct…


Well the danger with prognostications such as this is and in particular with the absence of any polling data, is that it is totally dependent on both the number of voters who turn out and whose voters they are. 

Specifically, one of the highest demographic segments that turns out to vote regularly is the 65 + age group.  This is the generation, particularly those in their late 80’s that either fought in WWII and or lived through that conflict and the Korean War and remember the sacrifices to protect liberty and freedoms. 

The most challenging demographic group(s) to predict consistently, is the under 40 groups, and in particular, the 18-30 year olds as they traditionally are not engaged enough to turn out to vote or if they are engaged enough, actually getting out and voting. 

SO, in a long winded way, I guess I am saying that my prognostication is just a rationalized explanation as to what I think may happen tomorrow.  As mentioned previously, if the voter mood for change is not as strong as it seems, then some of those candidates that I listed fighting for the 5-6th spots could totally be reversed.  :smile: 

Something else to consider is that my original prediction includes a majority of females on Council - I am not sure what the community’s perspective is on this in terms of whether the gender cleavage will actually be in some people’s mind when they vote or if the voting dynamics are such that the resulting council composition will be more gender balanced.  How’s that for qualifying one’s prediction?  :stuck_out_tongue:


Good morning HTMF.  Hopefully the people we send back to represent us for the next three years is a lot more open and transparent. We have a long road of recovery ahead of us, and we need a council who is open and willing to listened to our concerns and welcome new ideas to move our economy forward.

The people of Prince Rupert will have their chance to do that today…

haha… you said gender cleavage… ya

Yeah, I’m very curious to see how this one turns out. :smile: