I see thetyee.ca has moved North Coast from “Likely NDP” to “Solid NDP”. I wonder what their rationale was for that?
thetyee.ca/Election/Battleground/
Election Prediction project has also changed its North Coast prediction from BC Liberal to NDP:
Ah, found it here:
[quote]NORTH COAST was held by the New Democrats from 1972 until 2001, when Liberal Bill Belsey took the seat with 45.3% of the vote. As illustrated by the table below, his margin of victory over the combined NDP-Green vote was a minuscule three percentage points. Given recent province-wide public opinion polls, it appears very unlikely that he will win a second successive term.
The New Democratic Party candidate and probable victor is Gary Coons, a teacher and president of the local BCTF.[/quote]
thetyee.ca/Election/Battleground … MoreNorth/
Not exactly scientific reasoning, but I guess that’s the best you can do if you don’t live here and need to make a prediction.
Past behavior is a great predictor of future behavior
I’d say the opposite 
But yeah, I’m predicting that Coons will win as well, but not based on the past. If that were the case, then it would be a Belsey win.
Well, actually, if we use past behavior to predict the future, Coons would win. If one were to look at only the last election, he/she might conclude that Belsey would win. But once you take all the past behavior into account (as I think the prediction website did) then you have to predict that Coons would win. In any case I too hope Gary wins.
oops that last post was mine, forgot to login.
I hope Gary does not win… end I dont think he will. I rather have Hondo win at least I know Hondo is not a self serving I have my own agenda kind a guy…
Coons gets my vote, simply because of this time in Math 10 when he pulled this wicked joke about radicals.
The best part? My apolitical, uninformed vote is just as important as yours, with only about 1/20th of the effort.
Well said Steve.
I wish my b-day was sooner so I’d be able to vote, there seem to be far too many people out there who are going to vote for NDP just because their friends are.
I don’t think this riding is a Shoo-in ANYTHING at this point.
How this riding can be described as “Solid NDP” is beyond me. Although you certainly cannot base how the vote will go on this, but sign rations seem pretty even to me (and I am talking about the signs on peoples front yards, they are the ones indicating how the household is voting, not the huge billboards that are at every intersection in town). I notice that several areas of town are heavily concentrated with the same signs.
From my own viewing on a daily basis:
HEAVY LIBERAL AREAS:
Top half of Atlin Avenue
Graham Avenue
4th Avenue East & West
7th Avenue East (After Petro Can)
11th Avenue East (huge area, but mainly Liberal)
Cassiar Avenue
Pillsbury Avenue
Summit Avenue
SPLIT:
5th Avenue East & West
6th Avenue East & West
Haysvale
Water Street & Beach Place
Prince Rupert Boulevard
Park Avenue
Hays Cove Avenue
Seal Cove Area
Kootney Avenue
HEAVY NDP AREAS:
8th Avenue East (before Petro Can) & West
9th Avenue West
9th Avenue East (before Petro Can)
Sloan Avenue
Omenica Avenue
Bottom Half of Atlin Avenue
2nd Avenue West (Residential Area)
I do know more people personally that are voting Liberal in this election, some of them people who are part of unions (some teachers, who seem to be the most pissed off union group and of which one of their own is running for the NDP) (even union presidents!!) and people who voted NDP in the last election. I also know that MANY of these Liberal people refuse and have NO intention of placing a sign on their front yard advertising the part they support because they fear it may affect their business. In addition, I also have heard from people (ex-Rupertites) who are coming back to vote (they still own property and houses here) and are choosing to vote in this riding instead of their own, and are voting Liberal.
Prediction websites may be predicting this riding a SOLID NDP pick-up, but my own personal expiriences, from what I have seen around town, from things people have told me, this riding is VERY much up in the air and could go either way. I do think though that more Liberal voters are being more quite about who they are3 voting fore, while NDP voters are showing who they are supporting. Considering the party signs, that could be a bad thing for the NDP! With Green Party running (and with a popular candidate) could “steal” votes away from the NDP, which is another thing that is working against them.
To add, many of the mill workers (and families) have left town since 2001, this was a huge group of people who were solid NDP voters, while the business community is still very much intacted and WILL be in town to go out and vote.
We’re doomed then!
I agree with anon-1, definitely Liberal. Anyone who has any money in some business here will vote Liberal. Anyone who hasn’t been brainwashed by the Red (Or orange/blue) menace will also vote for the BC Liberal Party.
…
kidding, kidding.
: P
Gee, it’d be just lovely if the NDP came in. I love it when the province is broke and everyone suffers. Do you NDPers even remember when the NDP was last in power?
I do.
I remember when my parents would have to tell me not to expect much for Christmas because money was tight. There was no holiday spirit, there was no fun at all, my dad’s truck was a piece of crap and we never bought anything new that we needed because we couldn’t afford it.
Now that the Liberals have been around, life has been so much better. My dad has a new truck, Christmas’ kick ass, money is flowing like never before, life is damn good, just like it was before the NDP.
[quote=“SteveDVS”]Gee, it’d be just lovely if the NDP came in. I love it when the province is broke and everyone suffers. Do you NDPers even remember when the NDP was last in power?
I do.
I remember when my parents would have to tell me not to expect much for Christmas because money was tight. There was no holiday spirit, there was no fun at all, my dad’s truck was a piece of crap and we never bought anything new that we needed because we couldn’t afford it.
Now that the Liberals have been around, life has been so much better. My dad has a new truck, Christmas’ kick ass, money is flowing like never before, life is damn good, just like it was before the NDP.[/quote]
From what you say you are still living at home. Liberals have been in power for 4 years. The NDP was in power for 10 years before that. You suggest that you remember what it was like before the NDP so you must have been at least 6 or 8 years old then. That would make you at least 20-22 years old. And you are still living at home??? Your mom still feeds you?? Get a job and a place of your own and see if life is so good.
There’s no way I could pay rent, bills, and still eat with the full time job I have now. Living at home is sweet.
i dont think you can blame any political party for your employment at bata.
I’m not blaming anyone or anything. I happen to love my job. I make a few dollars more than minimum wage, and know I work at least 32 hours a week. That’s more than a lot of other people can say.
NDPers are just trying to be rebels. If the NDP came in power, they’d rebel against them and want green. Then if the green came into power they’d rebel against them and want Liberal. Then the cycle starts again.