Well the CBC poll tracker (which is an average of several polls) puts the Liberals slightly ahead). However, I will concede that this race is a statistical dead heat, it can go either way.
I am seeing that a lot of young people in our town are fired up about this election. If young people across Canada get out and vote things may get interesting.
The Liberals are now about 2 percentage points ahead of the Conservatives according to CBC poll tracker. Elections Canada is noting a big increase in the amount of people showing up at the advance polls.
A minority government is not necessarily one that lacks real power. Different leadership skills are no doubt called for.
The Pearson minority governments from 1963 to 68 were among the most productive ever, largely because of Pearson’s ability to work with the NDP; including introduction of CPP, a national health care system (Tommy Douglas played an influential role on that), strong support for the UN, staying out of the Viet Nam quagmire, and after much debate adopting a new flag.
During those years I was in High school, and this is what to respond with. The common meme at the time was to cite Italy 'look how useless… they had 40 odd gov’ts since the war… which would annoy me a little being part Italian.
THE REALITY was here in Canada, Pearson got us our own flag and medicare. At the same time I met fewer and fewer new Canadians from Italy. To the point I’ve met ANY since the mid 70s. They’re busy building Fiats and Ferraris and selling flour to us! Italy’s economy overtook Canada’s sometime in the 1980s.
I also personally benfited during the Trudeau/NDP coalition with generous unemployment benefits and dedicated job centers at college and university… grants to help employers train and hire young people. They weren’t even thought of before.
Nothing wrong with coalitions at all. You might even think the best part is they tend to fall apart quick and you get to choose a new gov’t sooner.
This time I have very little confidence in polling. Obviously I’m an old fart now, but still savvy enough to know the Internet age has changed everything and the pollsters haven’t and can’t adapt to it. My damn landline rings 90% of the time with polls and sales pitches and I don’t answer or tell them I’m not interested… unless I’m in a particularly dickish mood. Like telling them I’m voting Conservative and answering every question in the way I think a damned Nazi would respond. Just like I pretend to be the stupidest most ignorant computer user when ‘Tony from Microsoft’ calls.
[quote=“herbie_popnecker”]
This time I have very little confidence in polling. Obviously I’m an old fart now, but still savvy enough to know the Internet age has changed everything and the pollsters haven’t and can’t adapt to it. [/quote]
I’m guilty of continuing to bump this conversation. I am very curious to see how things turn out a week from now. The pollsters in our BC provincial election had it dead wrong, but, Crusty Clark’s own polling was accurate. There does seem to be a trend happening, but, really who the hell knows what will happen? I find it intriguing that voter turn out for the advance polls is higher this time around (although I have no idea what that means).
Polls could be accurate regarding voter preference but they don’t factor voter commitment to actually voting nor can they factor a party’s ability to get out the vote.
Anyway, I am still following paddy power and they now have the Liberals favoured at 4/6 with the Conservatives at even odds. The NDP remain 12/1.
[quote=“DWhite”]Polls could be accurate regarding voter preference but they don’t factor voter commitment to actually voting nor can they factor a party’s ability to get out the vote.
[/quote]
Polls also reflect the opinion of voters who actually answer their phone during an election campaign and agree to participate in a phone interview with an unidentified stranger. I rarely pick up the phone and I usually screen my calls.
I know I mentioned this earlier, DWhite, but I am very curious to see who calls this election better: the pollsters or the gamblers. I’d say it’s even money. 
No matter what the public polls are predicting the Harper Conservative internal polling must be prognosticating substantial leads if the Harper Conservatives are engaging in wedge stunts like these:
cbc.ca/news/canada/british-c … -1.3268011
or
ctvnews.ca/politics/election … -1.2607470
Pro (re) gressive Conservative politics at the finest.
They 're desperate.
The game show one was pretty sad.
[quote=“chien22”]No matter what the public polls are predicting the Harper Conservative internal polling must be prognosticating substantial leads if the Harper Conservatives are engaging in wedge stunts like these:
[/quote]
What I find terrible is that our reputation with the World has been tarnished because we have a Prime Minister who is using racist tactics to get re-elected.
According to the CBC Poll Tracker the Liberals are now 4 points ahead of the Conservatives.
I am very curious to see if the polling is accurate.
Paddy power no longer is offering any kind of betting odds on the Canadian election.
However the Sauder School of Business at UBC has a market driven device to see how the parties are doing and the Liberals look good there as well although it is close.
Anything but NDP or Green I can stomach.
too close to call but i will chance saying minority liberal government with about 130 seats, tories second and ndp back to third, within a year even if it is a tory minority harper will be gone and mulcair will be gone oh and congrats to Nathan for winning the riding at least he created a job in his riding and good luck running for the NDP leadership in one year
[quote=“chien22”]No matter what the public polls are predicting the Harper Conservative internal polling must be prognosticating substantial leads if the Harper Conservatives are engaging in wedge stunts like these:
cbc.ca/news/canada/british-c … -1.3268011
or
ctvnews.ca/politics/election … -1.2607470
Pro (re) gressive Conservative politics at the finest.[/quote]
Those ads are indeed bizarre, but but no this is not an example of 'Pro (re)gressive Conservative" politics. The first step in Steve Harper’s rise to power was the destruction of the once proud Progressive Conservative party in its weakened state after the 1993 election disaster and the reshaping of the Conservative brand into the sad spectacle that it has become. After an unseemly back room deal between Harper and Peter MacKay the federal PC party was dissolved in 2003.
The PCs were a different party in many ways. A quick look back. The Diefenbaker years seemed chaotic no doubt, but he gave aboriginal people the vote, brought in a Bill of Rights that presaged the Charter, appointed the first woman to cabinet, and as a symbolic gesture to gender equality took the bare-breasted woman off the harp on the Red Ensign (see the 1957 before and after < en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Red_Ensign >).
Yes, it’s hard not to cringe when thinking of the Mulroney years. He almost broke us financially and there was quite a bit of shadiness, but on the other hand he was a staunch opponent of apartheid and well regarded by Nelson Mandela, negotiated the acid rain agreement with the US, one of the few successful international environmental treaties. Incredible though it may sound, Elizabeth May was a senior policy advisor on that file. Also surprising, looking back, is that Mulroney appointed former Ontario NDP leader Stephen Lewis as UN ambassador.
Joe Clark was not prime minister long enough to accomplish much, so what can we say? Joe is a nice guy, a Red Tory, and it’s well known that he has never supported Steve Harper; probably doesn’t like him either, although Joe’s the kind of guy that would never say that about anyone. Maybe that’s tribute enough. The Harper years have been mean spirited to say the least.
The Progressive Conservatives are now long gone federally but they continue as a party in some provinces. Here’s what former PC premier of Newfoundland Danny Williams said about Harper: “He’s a lousy prime minister who’s divisive.” He advised progressive conservatives: “Just don’t vote for him because he’s bad for the country” < cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundl … -1.3256756 >. ABC.
Anything but the Cons for me.
Excellent summary BTravenn. People have to understand that Harper is not representative of the Progressive Conservatives (Tories) of the past.
If this election were about TPP or how our tax dollars were to be distributed or what Canada’s role would be in foreign affairs, I would still not be a supporter of the Conservatives but I wouldn’t be so worried about the direction our country is heading.
Just as an example and to give Joe Clark a little more credit. One of the things Clark’s government did do in his short time as Prime Minister was introduce Freedom of Information legislation. It got to second reading before the government fell but the Liberals used most of it to pass the Access to Information Act a couple of years later. In other words while not on his watch so to speak, Clark is very much responsible for our ability to access information making government more accountable and transparent.
Contrast that with the Harper Conservatives desire to silence scientists and other experts, the disrespect for Parliament, the wedge issue campaigns and the general nastiness.
This documentary is also a must-see before voting:
[quote]Stephen Harper’s capacity to trample on the rules of democracy and even ignore the law, when he wants something to get his own way – right up almost to election day – is laid out in riveting detail in a new documentary film.
Called “Election Day in Canada: The Rise of Voter Suppression," it’s available in draft form (including a few minor technical glitches) only from now until midnight, October 18.
If you care about the future of democracy in this country, I urge you to watch this film, and to share it with everyone you know.[/quote]
http://vimeo.com/thescriptandfilmco/review/142341107/53007791c6)
And the dirty tricks aren’t over yet.
Liberals at highest level of support since the writ was dropped.
[quote=“hitest”]
What I find terrible is that our reputation with the World has been tarnished because we have a Prime Minister who is using racist tactics to get re-elected.[/quote]
Are you talking about the niqab issue?
Why do we have to please “the world”? 70-80% Canadians agree with the PM on this one.