First off, I will admit to knowing pretty much nothing about the LNG industry and its financial outlook except for what little I can glean from news reports (as unreliable as they often are).
However, as an online poker player, I am fascinated by the psychology of this discussion and the surety of some of the posters. In poker, the cards are random, but I at least have control over what I do with them. I can analyze my hand, consider the board, the other players’ bets etc. and then, all facts considered, decide whether to hold them or fold them… And then I can punch myself in the face or pat myself on the back or scream at the poker gods depending on the outcome. Sometimes I know for certain that my hand is a winner; sometimes there is an excellent chance, sometimes it is a coin flip, sometimes I know I am hooped and sometimes something outrageously unlikely happens on the river ruining the best laid plans.
But at the end of the day I can look at the hand I see whether I was right, wrong, or just plain unlucky with the result.
None of that seems to apply here. Two groups, presumably looking at the same set of facts, are coming up with completing different opinions which isn’t necessarily unusual but the surety of their conclusions seems to be. Now we are not talking about personal viewpoints like whether Trudeau or Harper should be Prime Minister or whether or not LNG is a good thing for the community/environment. We all come from different backgrounds, philosophies etc that will result in differences of opinions.
But here we are talking about a future event that none of us control. I don’t think I am buying a new car this year. My current car is only seven years old and the expenses are still just regular maintenance yet I am less sure about what my car buying plans are than Grant G or Jabber are about the future of Petronas.
So my question for Grant G, if this were a poker game, and Jabber went all-in that Petronas would be building on Lelu before - let’s say - election day 2017, would you call that bet. And Jabber would you call the bet if Grant went all-in that there would be no construction before that date?
And more specifically for Grant G, is your prediction coloured by your dislike of the entire LNG boondoggle that the Liberals used to win the 2013 election. I think it safe to say that the LNG industry promised by Clark is not going to happen. We will not have the trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars from multiple projects. However does that automatically negate one or two projects like the one here.
And Grant G, just because you are not local and I feel I can poke you a bit more than some of the locals, is your prediction about Lelu as strong as your prediction of the May 2013 election.
Anyway, despite the best efforts from all posters I am no further ahead on whether or not I think Petronas will build or not but I do thank you for providing some insight into the psychology of predictions.
